What comes next? This question worries everyone on Earth. Obviously, new industries and components, technologies and materials will exert tremendous influence on the economy. This is true of ubiquitous nanotechnologies and nanomaterials.
Russia and many other countries are heavily investing in their development.
Hopes – Economic background In the IMF estimate, the global GDP is growing by about 5% per year. But this is an average figure. The Indian and Chinese economies are rushing ahead at a rate of almost 10% per year, while Russia is moving forward at 6%-7%. The relevant figure for the industrialised countries is about 2%-3%.
Analysts from Goldman Sachs maintain that if this trend persists, the world’s economic situation will undergo a dramatic change. For instance, by 2027 China will surpass the United States in terms of GDP. Before, they predicted that this would happen in 2034, but China’s rapid progress has compelled them to revise their forecasts.
Goldman also predicts that by 2032 the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will match the G7 in the aggregate GDP. The latter group includes the United States, Germany, Italy, France, Britain, Japan and Canada.
Some analysts are making even bolder forecasts. They predict that by 2050 Russia will leave behind such European countries as Britain, France and Germany.
Goldman believes that in the same year the United States will move to third place in the world economic ratings, while India will occupy the second position.
Energy Many analysts believe that the energy factor will dominate politics and the economy in the future. This is largely due to the mounting oil consumption (in the estimate of the International Energy Agency, it is going up at a rate of no less than 2.2% a year).
Analysts are convinced that the current producers will soon be unable to meet the global economy’s growing requirements, and after 2010 the world may be running out of energy.
IEA experts are confident that the OPEC countries are not going to boost oil production in the near future; other oil producers are likely to reduce their current exports. At any rate, there are no reasons to expect the required growth of production or supplies from Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria. This is why the shortage of oil products may become reality by about 2012.
Therefore, new deposits will have to be actively tapped in the near future, above all in the Antarctic and near the North Pole.
Experts believe that before long, Russia may also run into problems with hydrocarbon production. It may stop growing in 2010. Considering that oil production in Russia now stands at 9.9mn barrels per day, they expect this figure to peak at 10.6mn in 2010 and to fall to 10.5 mn by 2012.
Russian analysts share this concern, although they are sceptical about longterm forecasts, which take into account many political and other factors. It is no secret that Russia’s new deposits are mostly located in adverse climatic conditions – in the polar areas, northern Siberia, and potentially in the Arctic Ocean. Their development will call for heavy investment.
Production rates are bound to drop and oil exports will go down.
In addition to that, Russia’s continued economic growth requires increasing amounts of oil and may also drain it from exports.
Experts hope that renewable energy sources may solve the problem. However, for the time being it is quite expensive to replace oil with vegetable energy sources. Production of less expensive renewable fuel requires revolutionary technologies. Until their emergence, the struggle for controlling hydrocarbon energy sources will grow in scale and global oil prices will soar.
In the near future, they may reach $100 or even $120 per barrel.
Currency will have its impact on the growth of oil prices. So far, oil prices are denominated in US dollars. But for how long will this tendency persist?
Currency Changes in the global economy are likely to have a strong impact on the world finances. Everyone knows that the current world currency – the American dollar – is in gradual decline. Other economies are on the upsurge. Ironically, the American financiers are doing much to make their national currency unattractive. Ben S. Bernanke, the head of the Federal Reserve System, once said that America would print as many dollars as it deemed necessary. This process is going strong, considering the permanently growing American debt.
Therefore, it is no surprise that the dollar is being gradually ousted by other currencies in some regions. This process may have become irreversible. It is underway in Europe, where the common monetary unit, Euro, is playing an increasing role in global trade.
The Chinese Yuan is gaining in popularity in the Far East. Mikhail Delyagin, head of the Institute of Globalisation Problems, predicts that the rapid growth of the Chinese economy may turn the Yuan into a key world currency, even if it does not become formally convertible. He said: “With time the Chinese currency will become stronger, which is good for speculations, as the market will acquire an additional and steadily growing instrument.” Few dare predict what will happen with the ailing US dollar. No less than 70% of all American banknotes are outside US territory. It is hard to imagine what would happen in the world if they are rendered for payment in the United States. This will be worse than the Great Depression.
Experts are waiting with horror for this Day X. But many countries, for instance, Japan and European nations, will most likely continue supporting the dollar artificially, even contrary to their economic interests, for the next few years.
Yet this situation may not last long, and Day X may come much sooner if the United States does not give up its habit of unlimited borrowing. Analysts consider this scenario quite probable.
But even under different circumstances, those who are borrowing money are not going to pay it back. Everything will depend on how long the creditors are willing to tolerate this situation, or, in other words, on how long one group of states is able to control the other.
Russia and global economy Forecasts about Russia’s future economic situation are not unequivocal. Foreign analysts are convinced that Russia is in for a period of growth and prosperity.
Minister of Economic Development and Trade German Gref, who shares this opinion, said nothing could prevent Russia from becoming one of the world’s top five economies by 2020.
However, his deputy Andrei Belousov, who headed the Centre of Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, predicted in late 2005 that Russia was in for at least three upheavals before 2017.
They will be caused by escalating social tensions fuelled by inflation and growing housing and utility tariffs. Russia’s ablebodied population will drastically diminish; funding shortage will prejudice the pension system; wear-and-tear of equipment may bring about massive technological accidents; and its military and scientific potential will be all but depleted.
Belousov believes that these crises cannot be avoided unless the infrastructure is fully modernised.
His apprehensions are shared by scientists from the Economic Strategies Institute, who wrote a study entitled Forecast of Innovation, Technological and Structural Dynamics of the Russian Economy Until 2030. They believe that if the government fails to support fundamental innovations, Russian manufactured products will be unable to compete in the world market.
In 2004, President Vladimir Putin urged the nation to double GDP by 2010.
However, at that time top government officials were horrified by this bold goal and did much to make it unrealistic.
To sum up, Russia has not yet gained ability for self-sufficient and long-term advance.
