The media were called in an hour before time, the security inspection was even more thorough than ever, and the cameramen of all 20 TV networks present, a Nezavisimaya Gazeta reporter said later, had received instructions from their bosses to “work as it you had the President before you,” i.e. keep the cameras directed on the speaker, rather than on the audience.
Of course Putin used to – and is probably still able to - gather tens of times as many reporters, and his conferences have been a bit longer – a record 3.32 against Ivanov’s 2.19 – but it was really hard to get rid of the thought that Sergei Ivanov, the former defense minister, was being treated as a clear front-runner in the apparent race for the presidency.
Then there was not only what Ivanov had to say, but how he said it. He seamlessly extrapolated his answers from his clear jurisdiction - defense industry, engineering, high technology – to geopolitics and other much broader matters. You could judge as much from his introductory note, focused on preferred principles for the good governance of the Russian state.
“The state should set a solid stage for the development of industries, rather than rigorously administer them,” he said. Note the use of the word “state” – not the “government,” as if government was far lower than wherever Mr. Ivanov already sees himself sitting.
There was another curious, even though much overlooked, remark: “I am responsible for 26 federal programs worth 1.314033 trillion rubles in the three coming years,” he said, in a clear sign that he is aware of his own role in what is believed to be a big growth driver - not only for the “economy” in a broad and therefore abstract sense, but also for many Russians on the ground.
Note that, as Ivanov travels a lot around the country in an air of a “race for Putin’s blessing” trumpeted by many political experts, he seems perfectly aware that all his words are all but perceived as some kind of an election program.
In this context, such broad statements quite logically sum up for the first 100 days of a new first deputy premier who aspires to something higher.
Even though Ivanov himself keeps on denying that he has an ambition to become President, and even though there is almost a year left until election day, some issues already lead to curious thoughts.
First, all federal programs Ivanov is responsible for are at least three years long: the program to build new nuclear power plants is to be completed in 2020; the last stroke of a trans-Russian Baltic-Pacific highway - between Chita and Khabarovsk - is to be laid in 2010; the Glonass satellite navigation system is to become global in 2009, etc. This doubtless means he will remain a top decision-maker for a long time to come, which will certainly pave the way for him to become the top decision-maker.
Also note that he spoke quite elaborately about Russia’s relations with the United States, including its plans to build a missile shield in the Eastern Europe, and on Russia’s possible suspension of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe – normally → these issues as well beyond the scope of a first deputy prime minister. He had said Russia would not receive foreign military inspections and would not notify foreigners of its troop movements under the CFE Treaty, even though Russia has not yet started the customary procedure for its suspension (first a CFE conference must be convened and a formal complaint must be filed). Who exactly authorized Ivanov to make such statements is an open question. Maybe this is just another “probing move,” similar to his repeated claims that Russia is “considering” pre-emptive strikes against terrorist bases in Georgia and Afghanistan? While there are a lot of terrorists in both places – and around Kabul they are so successful that even 30,000 NATO troops can not cope with them – we have yet to see any action.
Where Ivanov’s engineering jurisdiction is concerned, the “all is well” mantra of his PR staff is also too far from the truth.
Machinery and designer teams are aging, good opportunities appear only in companies whose products are exportable, defense science and industry are impeded by policy uncertainties and overdue transition period in the Russian Armed Forces.
These are concerns that Ivanov has yet to address. However, his latest bid for presidency can only be described as a turning point. He seems to be aware that it is the Russian voters who will bring to power whoever succeeds Vladimir Putin. He is also apparently aware that the people will look at his “done,” rather than “to do” list. And he must anticipate that the months left until election day will bring many new developments, not all of them encouraging. Nonetheless, he has already shown he is in the race – and is determined to finish first.
