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THE EU'S FUTURE AFTER THE LISBON TREATY

RUDOLF KUCERA, Business mir #16 - 2010-05 MAIL PRINT 
The Lisbon Treaty introduced significant political changes which will officially be adopted by the EU nations in 2010. These include the establishment of veritable European ministries, such as the European External Action Service (EEAS).
Since its very early days, the process of European integration has been based on treaties signed between independent nations which gradually led to the establishment of common European institutions. Therefore, since the merging of three European communities’ executive bodies in 1965, experts and analysts referred to the European Community or Communities rather than the European Union until 1992.
However, this process has never gotten to the stage of creating a truly supranational state, or super-state. It didn’t even happen after the official establishment of the European Union in 1992.
The EU’s fundamental laws are represented in the constituent documents of independent associations, such as the European Coal and Steel Community (treaty signed in 1952), the European Economic Community and the European Atomic Energy Community (1958), the Treaty of Rome (1958), the Single European Act (1986), as well as the Treaty on European Union, otherwise known as the Maastricht Treaty (1992). These were followed by many others until the Treaty of Lisbon, signed in 2007, came into effect two years later.
The Lisbon Treaty primarily changed all previous treaties in the history of European integration. In fact, it cancelled all of them, with the exception of the Maastricht Treaty, so from that moment the EU was bound to observe the Lisbon Treaty and the Treaty on European Union. At the same time, the Lisbon Treaty states that both treaties are equally legal forces and that the European Union as a consolidated entity succeeds the legal personality of the European Communities. This clearly shows that the EU is above all a legal organisation with a legal foundation.
From the get go, all treaties on European community focused on economic integration but never exclusively dealt with economic problems. Political provisos which took political integration into account always were an inalienable part of these treaties. However, only the 1992 Maastricht Treaty provided a clear definition of European integration’s main vector, achieving cohesive political union. The introduction of the Euro as a common currency gave it a corresponding economic basis.
At December 2001’s European Council meeting in Laken, Belgium, EU members agreed on the European Convention with a mandate to draft the Treaty establishing a European constitution. After 16 months of work between February 2002 and June 2004, the Convention produced a Draft Constitutional Treaty. Although 18 nations ratified it, this phase was not completed because the referenda in France (May 29, 2005) and the Netherlands (June 1, 2005) voted against it for reasons due to national politics. Following this, the leading EU countries — primarily Germany and France — proposed amending the text of the Treaty. However, it was not changed in principal, and was signed in Lisbon in December 2007.
Above all, the Lisbon Treaty strengthens the role of the European Parliament, which has been legally (with few exceptions) raised to a level equal to that of the European Council. The EU Parliament now has the right to take part in adopting the budget, and its role in agricultural policy and other spheres has been largely expanded. It has been granted more supervisory functions in relation to the European Commission, and also the right to elect the Commission’s President. The Lisbon Treaty has also expanded the rights and powers of national parliaments. The most important innovation is the right of national parliaments to oppose EU legislative decisions, if the majority believes that they go against the principle of subsidiarity.
In accordance with this principle, the Commission is obliged to review its decisions if one third of the EU member states’ parliaments decide that this principle has been violated (the so-called “yellow card” procedure). If a simple majority of parliaments comes to this conclusion (in this case, each country has two votes), the decision gets the “red card” and goes into a dustbin provided the European Parliament and the European Council say so. However, the main obstacle to applying this right is the considerable amount of time needed to make the decision and the various national parliaments’ ability (or inability) to coordinate discussions. They are given only eight weeks to decide whether a decision merits a yellow or red card, which requires rather high parliamentary standards and careful monitoring of work done at the European level. Since national parliaments also enjoy other rights, there is reason to believe that no important decisions will be taken in the EU without the opinion of democratically elected national parliaments after the Lisbon Treaty goes into effect.
The Treaty also increases the rights of the EU citizens. Britain, Poland and the Czech Republic have negotiated a number of exceptions on certain items in the European Union’s Charter of Fundamental Rights for themselves. Britain had obvious reasons for such a measure, whereas the reasons behind the other two countries’ moves are less apparent. If they choose not to abandon their claims, Poland and the Czech Republic will go against the interests of their own citizens.
The Charter gives EU nationals very effective legal protection, as well as the opportunity to unite in encouraging the European Commission to conduct specific negotiations. Such a motion requires one million votes; a fairly realistic figure given that the EU countries have a total of approximately 500 million citizens.
The Lisbon Treaty also defines the number of EU member states’ representatives in the Union’s institutions. For example, the European Parliament will include 751 members as of 2014’s parliamentary election. In the last election period (2004-2009), there were 785 EU Parliament members and it’s not surprising that the Parliament was overcrowded. There are currently 736 members of Parliament (MPs) and the Union will increase the number to 754 in the current electoral period.
The Lisbon Treaty stipulates that the new members will include four representatives from Spain, two from France, Austria and Sweden respectively. One member from Bulgaria, Italy, Latvia, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia and Britain respectively will also be joining the EU Parliament. On December 1, 2010, all of these new MPs will be starting work in Strasbourg after their appointments have been concluded, which will take place based on the results of the European Parliament’s last elections. The late date was chosen because some of the above-mentioned states are expected to have problems in selecting representatives.
Initially, the Lisbon Treaty was meant to limit the number of European Commissioners to the representatives of only two thirds of the member countries. But the idea did not materialise, and each country will continue to have its own European Commissioner, which significantly reduces decision-making efficiency. On the other hand, the European Union managed to introduce majority decisions, and the member countries’ ability to veto a decision has been minimised. Some specific decisions may be adopted by the so-called double majority, comprised of 55% of EU members and 65% of EU citizens. This will partially be made possible beginning in 2014, and will come into full force in 2017. The principle of double majority is currently used in Switzerland, where the results of important referendums are determined based on the majority of both Swiss citizens’ votes and the cantons’ votes.
The European Council will be divided into the Council of General Affairs and the Council of External Relations. A fundamental, new element is the transformation of the Council into a body that determines the EU’s priorities and general policy. The European Council is now chaired by a leader who was elected for a two and a half year term, Belgian politician Herman Van Rompuy. This division will finally put an end to the practice whereby with each new EU presidency a new leader appeared who was entirely dependent on the political situation in his country, as was the case with Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek.
The Lisbon Treaty establishes another new and high-ranking position, which is the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, a role currently held by a Vice-President of the European Commission. As head of the European External Action Service, the HR will carry out the Union’s foreign and defence policy regardless of EU chairmanship rotation, the European Commission or European Council. This is very important, as it will give the Service a substantial degree of autonomy. Aside from this, the Lisbon Treaty gives the EU legal status and consequently the right to enter into international conventions, join international organisations, etc. Many delegates from the European People's Party, the faction which won the European Parliament majority, already regret that they gave such an important — and perhaps the supreme post — to Baroness Catherine Ashton, a British politician nominated for the post by Socialists and known for her leftist views.
The European External Action Service, charged with ensuring the consistency of the Union’s common external actions and security, will no doubt become one of the most important EU institutions. There will be other Commissioners responsible for some areas such as the the EU’s development policy and EU expansion and external trade, but this will in no way detract from the importance of the EEAS. On the contrary, task forces for the planning and management of foreign missions and EU Military staff will be placed under the High Representative’s direct authority and responsibility.
The EEAS will have between 800 and 1,000 employees; forming its departments and sections will begin in April, 2010 and by 2012 they should be fully operational. EU members eager to participate in foreign affairs and security policy should send their representatives to the Service, and many career diplomats and officials have already begun assiduously competing for these jobs. It also comprises the European Defence Agency, founded in 2005, which will have diverse responsibilities, such as providing funding for European military programmes, military research, and a growing number of joint projects between the EU Armed Forces.
The EU special armed forces are not as much of a myth as many people still believed until quite recently. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, for example, recommended that the EU should pay more attention to the common defence and security policy and work on developing common armed forces at a recent Conference on Security Policy in Munich. At this same conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed Russia’s interest in a new pan-European military and political space where common security and defence interests could be implemented.
And lastly, what will be the role of the Lisbon Treaty for the future of Europe? Let's imagine Europe as a much stronger and more homogeneous political union than now. It will take time for all the changes to be completed and all the new EU institutions to start functioning in full force. But sooner or later there will come a day when the EU will ask its members for take on more responsibility and make greater efforts in common interests. After all, the Union will become a stronger player on the global stage, and those in the EU who act irresponsibly will be forced to leave the club. A vivid example of such a possibility is Greece, which has been pressured to withdraw from the Euro zone.
Also, the EU will obviously lose interest in expansion, since it has become clear that the admission of each new member (except Croatia) would weaken the Union and threaten it. For some people this will become a cause for uneasiness and concern and for others, a cause for joy. I shall join the latter party.
Dr Rudolf Kuchera is Doctor of Philosophy, the founder of the Department of political Sciences at the Charles University in Prague, Chairman of the Pan-European Union of Czechia and Moravia, author of numerous academic treatises on European integration and civil society, and Editor-in-Chief of Revue Sredni Evropa magazine
RUDOLF KUCERA, Business mir #16 - 2010-05  MAIL PRINT 
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Ежедневные новости и аналитика из Швейцарии и Европы, политика, экономика, интервью

Daily news and analytics from Switzerland and Europe, policy, economy, interview